Project Leader: Dr. hab. Rafał Toczko, Prof. UMK
Project Overview: This project examines the polycrisis faced by the western provinces of the Roman Empire and the states that emerged in their place (4th–6th centuries CE), drawing parallels with the contemporary challenges of the West after 2008. We focus on three dimensions of crisis: migration, environmental (climate change and epidemics), and institutional.
Our interdisciplinary approach centers on: 1) discourses on crisis in literary and non-literary sources, 2) models of crisis management, and 3) social and individual mechanisms for coping with crises.
Research Areas:
I. Migration Crisis: We investigate migratory movements caused by natural disasters and their links to epidemics and institutional transformation. Our interest lies in the emotional and behavioral patterns of community leaders and citizens responding to migratory pressures and related demographic changes.
II. Environmental Crisis: We analyze discourses on the late antique climate crisis, with empirical data on natural disasters providing contextual background. Emphasis is placed on capturing both emotional and rational reactions from texts, as well as analyzing how climate changes, droughts, famine, and epidemics were communicated, perceived, and processed in late antique discourse.
III. Institutional Crisis: We trace responses to the fall of the Roman state, the contraction of cities, the decline of trade networks, changes in the monetary system, the collapse of education, and the rise of monasticism alongside new centers of power. Focus is placed on how these transformations were reflected in public and private discourse, rather than on the phenomena themselves.
Methodology and Innovation: Building on previous research on episcopal letters, we significantly expand the source material to include sermons, historiography, hagiography, theological treatises, inscriptions, coins, and legal documents. We plan to collaborate with contemporary specialists in leadership, organizational behavior, crisis management, social psychology, and sociology to create comprehensive maps of leadership strategies and patterns of civic behavior.
Expected Impact and Relevance: This comprehensive analysis of discourses surrounding the multidimensional crisis in late antique Western Europe will provide insights into historical responses to polycrisis, which is itself a novel approach in scholarship. By studying how past societies coped with simultaneous migratory, environmental, and institutional challenges, the project offers a historical perspective on leadership effectiveness, communication strategies, and the development of social and individual resilience mechanisms. The interdisciplinary methodology bridges historical research, discourse analysis, and contemporary crisis management theory, offering practical knowledge for modern policymakers, leaders, and communities facing similar multidimensional challenges.